Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari; Raddatz, Thomas; Thum, Tea; Todd-Brown, Kathe E.  O.

doi:10.1002/2014gb004988

Strong dependence of CO₂ emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

Journal Article · Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb004988· OSTI ID:1347711

Goll, Daniel S. ^[1]; Brovkin, Victor ^[2]; Liski, Jari ^[3]; Raddatz, Thomas ^[2]; Thum, Tea ^[4]; ^[5]

Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); KlimaCampus, Hamburg (Germany); Lab. for Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)
Finnish Meteorologica Inst., Helsinki (Finland)
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. Microbiology and Plant Biology; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Biological Sciences Division

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr^$$-$$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr^$$-$$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1347711

Journal Information:: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Name: Global Biogeochemical Cycles Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 29; ISSN 0886-6236

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Soil Organic Matter Persistence as a Stochastic Process: Age and Transit Time Distributions of Carbon in Soils Sierra, Carlos A.; Hoyt, Alison M.; He, Yujie Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 32, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gb005950	journal	October 2018
Developments in the MPI‐M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO ₂ Mauritsen, Thorsten; Bader, Jürgen; Becker, Tobias Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ms001400	journal	April 2019
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability Maher, Nicola; Milinski, Sebastian; Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001639	journal	July 2019
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release Gasser, T.; Kechiar, M.; Ciais, P. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0	journal	September 2018
Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon Kleinen, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad824	journal	August 2018
Modelling the impacts of intensifying forest management on carbon budget across a long latitudinal gradient in Europe Akujärvi, Anu; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Pietsch, Stephan A. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf766	journal	March 2019
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Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release Gasser, T.; Kechiar, M.; Ciais, P. Nature Publishing Group https://doi.org/10.48350/155695	text	January 2018
Year-round simulated methane emissions from a permafrost ecosystem in Northeast Siberia Castro-Morales, Karel; Kleinen, Thomas; Kaiser, Sonja Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018	journal	January 2018
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions Lienert, Sebastian; Joos, Fortunat Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018	journal	January 2018
What was the source of the atmospheric CO₂ increase during the Holocene? Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas Biogeosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019	journal	January 2019
What was the source of the atmospheric CO₂ increase during the Holocene? Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas Biogeosciences Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-64	journal	March 2019
The end of the African humid period as seen by a transient comprehensive Earth system model simulation of the last 8000 years Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Lorenz, Stephan J. Climate of the Past, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020	journal	January 2020
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Dynamic hydrological discharge modelling for coupled climate model simulations of the last glacial cycle: the MPI-DynamicHD model version 3.0 Riddick, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; Hagemann, Stefan Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018	journal	January 2018
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Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets Harper, Anna B.; Powell, Tom; Cox, Peter M. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000085418	text	January 2018
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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