Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari; Raddatz, Thomas; Thum, Tea; Todd-Brown, Kathe E.  O.

doi:10.1002/2014gb004988

Title: Strong dependence of CO₂ emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

Journal Article · Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb004988· OSTI ID:1347711

Goll, Daniel S. ^[1]; Brovkin, Victor ^[2]; Liski, Jari ^[3]; Raddatz, Thomas ^[2]; Thum, Tea ^[4];

^[5]

Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); KlimaCampus, Hamburg (Germany); Lab. for Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)
Finnish Meteorologica Inst., Helsinki (Finland)
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. Microbiology and Plant Biology; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Biological Sciences Division

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr^$$-$$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr^$$-$$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC0576RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1347711

Journal Information:: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 9; ISSN 0886-6236

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 58 works

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Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale Porada, P.; Ekici, A.; Beer, C. The Cryosphere Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2015-223	posted_content	February 2016
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Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets Harper, Anna B.; Powell, Tom; Cox, Peter M. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000085418	text	January 2018
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What was the source of the atmospheric CO₂ increase during the Holocene? Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas Biogeosciences Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-64	journal	March 2019
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Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models Chadburn, Sarah E.; Krinner, Gerhard; Porada, Philipp Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017	journal	January 2017
Terrestrial methane emissions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial period Kleinen, Thomas; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Brovkin, Victor Climate of the Past, Vol. 16, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020	journal	January 2020
The Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure Version 1 (FOCI1): Mean State and Variability Matthes, Katja; Biastoch, Arne; Wahl, Sebastian Geoscientific Model Development Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-306	journal	January 2020

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Title: Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

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Title: Strong dependence of CO₂ emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization