Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

Technical Report · Wed Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 2017

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1346333· OSTI ID:1346333

Gearhart, Jared Lee ^[1]; Samberson, Jonell Nicole ^[1]; Shettigar, Subhasini ^[1]; Jungels, John ^[1]; Welch, Kimberly M. ^[1]; Jones, Dean A. ^[1]

---

1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandia National Laboratories, Unknown, Unknown
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 1346333
• Report Number(s): SAND2017-2280; 651341
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE