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Title: Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Journal Article · · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
 [1];  [1]
  1. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697

Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999–2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April–September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (~95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O3, +6 µg m–3 for PM2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Lastly, our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0012536
OSTI ID:
1345072
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1465179
Journal Information:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 114 Journal Issue: 11; ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher:
Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 105 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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