Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO 2 sequestration sites
The National Risk Assessment Partnership has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO2 sequestration sites (www.netldoe.gov/nrap). This capability includes polynomial or look-up table based reduced-order models (ROMs) that predict the impact of CO2 and brine leaks on overlying aquifers. The development of these computationally-efficient models and the underlying reactive transport simulations they emulate has been documented elsewhere (Carroll et al., 2014, Dai et al., 2014, Keating et al., 2015). The ROMs reproduce the ensemble behavior of large numbers of simulations and are well-suited to applications that consider a large number of scenarios to understand parameter sensitivity and uncertainty on the risk of CO2 leakage to groundwater quality. In this paper, we seek to demonstrate applicability of ROM-based ensemble analysis by considering what types of decisions and aquifer types would benefit from the ROM analysis. We present four hypothetical four examples where applying ROMs, in ensemble mode, could support decisions in the early stages in a geologic CO2 sequestration project. These decisions pertain to site selection, site characterization, monitoring network evaluation, and health impacts. In all cases, we consider potential brine/CO2 leak rates at the base of the aquifer to be uncertain. We show that derived probabilities provide information relevant to the decision at hand. Although the ROMs were developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (High Plains and Edwards), the models accept aquifer characteristics as variable inputs and so they may have more broad applicability. We conclude that pH and TDS predictions are the most transferable to other aquifers based on the analysis of the nine water quality metrics (pH, TDS, 4 trace metals, 3 organic compounds). Guidelines are presented for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, Morgantown, WV (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396; AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1342308
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-15-28985; PNNL-SA-114632; AA7020000
- Journal Information:
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 52, Issue C; ISSN 1750-5836
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Sustainability and Environmental Risk
|
book | December 2017 |
Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2 sequestration site : Modeling and Analysis: Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO
|
journal | October 2017 |
Modeling the potential impacts of CO 2 sequestration on shallow groundwater: The fate of trace metals and organic compounds before and after leakage stops : Original Research Article: Modeling the potential impacts of CO
|
journal | September 2017 |
Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Sustainability and Environmental Risk
|
book | January 2019 |
Similar Records
Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2 sequestration site: Modeling and Analysis: Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2
Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, Brine and Trace Metal Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer, Version 2.1