Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO2 sequestration sites

Keating, Elizabeth; Bacon, Diana; Carroll, Susan; Mansoor, Kayyum; Sun, Yunwei; Zheng, Liange; Harp, Dylan; Dai, Zhenxue

doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.07.001

Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO₂ sequestration sites

Journal Article · Mon Jul 25 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.07.001· OSTI ID:1394966

Keating, Elizabeth ^[1]; Bacon, Diana ^[2]; Carroll, Susan ^[3]; Mansoor, Kayyum ^[3]; Sun, Yunwei ^[3]; Zheng, Liange ^[4]; Harp, Dylan ^[1]; Dai, Zhenxue ^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

The National Risk Assessment Partnership has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO₂ sequestration sites. This capability includes polynomial or look-up table based reduced-order models (ROMs) that predict the impact of CO₂ and brine leaks on overlying aquifers. The development of these computationally-efficient models and the underlying reactive transport simulations they emulate has been documented elsewhere (Carroll et al., 2014a; Carroll et al., 2014b; Dai et al., 2014 ; Keating et al., 2016). Here in this paper, we seek to demonstrate applicability of ROM-based analysis by considering what types of decisions and aquifer types would benefit from the ROM analysis. We present four hypothetical examples where applying ROMs, in ensemble mode, could support decisions during a geologic CO₂ sequestration project. These decisions pertain to site selection, site characterization, monitoring network evaluation, and health impacts. In all cases, we consider potential brine/CO₂ leak rates at the base of the aquifer to be uncertain. We show that derived probabilities provide information relevant to the decision at hand. Although the ROMs were developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (High Plains and Edwards), the models accept aquifer characteristics as variable inputs and so they may have more broad applicability. We conclude that pH and TDS predictions are the most transferable to other aquifers based on the analysis of the nine water quality metrics (pH, TDS, 4 trace metals, 3 organic compounds). Guidelines are presented for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, and Morgantown, WV (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830; AC52-06NA25396; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1394966

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1342308
OSTI ID: 1454486
OSTI ID: 1463023
OSTI ID: 1396565

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--15-28985; LLNL-JRNL--737443; PNNL-SA--114632

Journal Information:: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Journal Name: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Journal Issue: C Vol. 52; ISSN 1750-5836

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited By (4)

Modeling the potential impacts of CO ₂ sequestration on shallow groundwater: The fate of trace metals and organic compounds before and after leakage stops : Original Research Article: Modeling the potential impacts of CO Zheng, Liange; Spycher, Nicolas Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg.1728	journal	September 2017
Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO ₂ sequestration site : Modeling and Analysis: Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO Bacon, Diana Holford; Locke II, Randall A.; Keating, Elizabeth Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg.1730	journal	October 2017
Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Sustainability and Environmental Risk Oldenburg, Curtis M. Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_200-3	book	December 2017
Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Sustainability and Environmental Risk Oldenburg, Curtis M. Environmental Geology https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-8787-0_200	book	January 2019

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Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO 2 sequestration sites

Journal Article · Mon Jul 25 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control · OSTI ID:1342308

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
Carbon sequestration
Earth Sciences
Groundwater impacts
Reduced-order modeling
Risk assessment