Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

Conference · Mon Oct 05 04:00:00 EDT 2015

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2015.7286239· OSTI ID:1326179

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

• Research Organization: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 1326179
• Report Number(s): NREL/CP-5D00-67158
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
biological system modeling
forecasting
measurement
numerical models
predictive models
spinning
weather forecasting