Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

Conference · Wed Aug 05 00:00:00 EDT 2015

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2015.7286239· OSTI ID:1215163

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

• Research Organization: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
• Sponsoring Organization: Solar FOA funded by DOE
• Contributing Organization: IBM TJ Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York; Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts; University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona; Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois; U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.
• DOE Contract Number: NONE
• OSTI ID: 1215163
• Report Number(s): NREL/CP-5D00-63876
• Conference Information: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 26-30 July 2015, Denver, Colorado
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
grid integration
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
numerical weather prediction
operating reserve
ramp forecasting
solar power forecasting