Predicting glacio-hydrologic change in the headwaters of the Zongo River, Cordillera Real, Bolivia

Frans, Chris; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Lettenmaier, Dennis; Naz, Bibi S.; Clarke, Garry K. C.; Condom, Thomas; Burns, Pat; Nolin, Anne W.

doi:10.1002/2014WR016728

Predicting glacio-hydrologic change in the headwaters of the Zongo River, Cordillera Real, Bolivia

Journal Article · Thu Nov 19 04:00:00 EST 2015 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016728· OSTI ID:1271886

Frans, Chris ^[1]; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan ^[1]; Lettenmaier, Dennis ^[2]; Naz, Bibi S. ^[3]; Clarke, Garry K. C. ^[4]; Condom, Thomas ^[5]; Burns, Pat ^[6]; Nolin, Anne W. ^[7]

Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada)
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France)
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Quantum Spatial, Portland, Oregon (United States)
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)

In many partially glacierized watersheds glacier recession driven by a warming climate could lead to complex patterns of streamflow response over time, often marked with rapid increases followed by sharp declines, depending on initial glacier ice cover and rate of climate change. Capturing such "phases'' of hydrologic response is critical in regions where communities rely on glacier meltwater, particularly during low flows. In this study, we investigate glacio-hydrologic response in the headwaters of the Zongo River, Bolivia, under climate change using a distributed glacio-hydrological model over the period of 1987-2100. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with satellite-derived glacier extent estimates, glacier surface velocity, in situ glacier mass balance, surface energy flux, and stream discharge measurements. Historically (1987-2010) modeled glacier melt accounts for 27% of annual runoff, and 61% of dry season (JJA) runoff on average. During this period the relative glacier cover was observed to decline from 35 to 21% of the watershed. In the future, annual and dry season discharge is projected to decrease by 4% and 27% by midcentury and 25% and 57% by the end of the century, respectively, following the loss of 81% of the ice in the watershed. Modeled runoff patterns evolve through the interplay of positive and negative trends in glacier melt and increased evapotranspiration as the climate warms. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the selection of model surface energy balance parameters greatly influences the trajectory of hydrological change projected during the first half of the 21st century. In conclusion, these model results underscore the importance of coupled glacio-hydrology modeling.

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1271886

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 51; ISSN 1944-7973

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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