Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

Cross, Julian M.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Hoffman, Matthew James; Obryk, Maciej K.

doi:10.1029/2022jf006833

Title: Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

Journal Article · Wed Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf006833· OSTI ID:1903551

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Portland State Univ., OR (United States)
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
US Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA (United States). Cascades Volcano Observatory

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; 1643573

OSTI ID:: 1903551

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-22-28070

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface, Vol. 127, Issue 12; ISSN 2169-9003

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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