A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Yoon, Jin‐Ho; Lu, Jian; Gao, Yang

doi:10.1002/2015GL067392

A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Journal Article · Wed Jan 13 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067392· OSTI ID:1255375

Hagos, Samson M. ^[1]; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby ^[1]; Yoon, Jin‐Ho ^[1]; Lu, Jian ^[1]; Gao, Yang ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Here, the model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES) (SC-22); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1255375

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402158

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--115451; KP1703010

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 43; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

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