Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; Yang, Qing; Hagos, Samson M.; Qian, Yun

doi:10.1002/2015GL065435

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

Journal Article · Mon Aug 24 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065435· OSTI ID:1224503

Gao, Yang ^[1]; Lu, Jian ^[1]; Leung, L. Ruby ^[1]; Yang, Qing ^[1]; Hagos, Samson M. ^[1]; Qian, Yun ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. Here, the consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1224503

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1402358

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--110116; KP1703010

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 17 Vol. 42; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

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