Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

doi:10.1038/ncomms9657

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Journal Article · Wed Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9657· OSTI ID:1229998

Yoon, Jin -Ho ^[1]; Wang, S. -Y. Simon ^[2]; Gillies, Robert R. ^[2]; Kravitz, Benjamin S. ^[1]; Hipps, Lawrence ^[2]; Rasch, Philip J. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)

California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: DOE Office of Science; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1229998

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--112803; KP1703020

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 6; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

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