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Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models

Journal Article · · Journal of Climate
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4]
  1. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Univ. of Grenoble (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grenoble (France)
  2. Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France); National Inst. of Oceanography, Goa (India)
  3. Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
  4. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Recent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events (nIOD and pIOD, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, El Niño and La Niña events one year later. These statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. This paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to assess IOD and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. In the observations and most CMIP5 models, it is shown that El Niños tend to be followed by La Niñas but not the opposite, that pIODs co-occur more frequently with El Niños than nIODs with La Niñas, that nIODs tend to be followed by El Niños one year later less frequently than pIODs by La Niñas, and that including an IOD index in a linear prediction based on the Pacific warm water volume improves ENSO peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. The IOD–ENSO delayed relationship partly results from a combination of ENSO intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for El Niños to be followed by La Niñas) and from the synchronous IOD–ENSO relationship. The results, however, reveal that this is not sufficient to explain the high prevalence of pIOD–Niña transitions in the observations and 75% of the CMIP5 models, and of nIOD–Niño transitions in 60% of CMIP5 models. Lastly, this suggests that the tendency of IOD to lead ENSO by one year should be explained by a physical mechanism that, however, remains elusive in the CMIP5 models. The ability of many CMIP5 models to reproduce the delayed influence of the IOD on ENSO is nonetheless a strong incentive to explore extended-range dynamical forecasts of ENSO.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science
OSTI ID:
1565518
Journal Information:
Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 29; ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships journal March 2017
Western North Pacific anticyclone change associated with the El Niño–Indian Ocean Dipole coupling journal January 2019
Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations journal October 2016
On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation journal June 2018
The interaction between the Western Indian Ocean and ENSO in CESM journal September 2018
Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability journal November 2019
A Subsurface Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Tropical Volcanic Eruptions journal September 2018
Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations journal March 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Circulation/ Dynamics
Climate models
Climate prediction
ENSO
Geographic location/entity
Indian Ocean
Mathematical and statistical techniques
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Models and modeling
Physical Meteorology and Climatology
Statistical techniques
Tropical variability
Variability