Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change

Journal Article · Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2552· OSTI ID:1182918

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine V.

Anthropogenically-driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature . The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt . We find that current trends in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25±0.05 (1σ) °C per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous 1-2 millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1182918
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-93187; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English