Global Carbon Budget 2022

Journal Article · Fri Nov 11 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Earth System Science Data (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022· OSTI ID:1897754

Friedlingstein, Pierre ; O'Sullivan, Michael ; Jones, Matthew W.; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Gregor, Luke ; Hauck, Judith ; Le Quéré, Corinne ; Luijkx, Ingrid T. ; Olsen, Are ; Peters, Glen P. ; Peters, Wouter ; Pongratz, Julia ; Schwingshackl, Clemens ; Sitch, Stephen; Canadell, Josep G. ; Ciais, Philippe ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Alin, Simone R. ; Alkama, Ramdane; Arneth, Almut ; Arora, Vivek K.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Becker, Meike ; Bellouin, Nicolas ; Bittig, Henry C. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chevallier, Frédéric ; Chini, Louise P. ; Cronin, Margot; Evans, Wiley ; Falk, Stefanie ; Feely, Richard A.; Gasser, Thomas ; Gehlen, Marion ; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Gloege, Lucas; Grassi, Giacomo; Gruber, Nicolas ; Gürses, Özgür ; Harris, Ian; Hefner, Matthew; Houghton, Richard A. ; Hurtt, George C. ; Iida, Yosuke ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Jain, Atul K. ; Jersild, Annika; Kadono, Koji; Kato, Etsushi ; Kennedy, Daniel; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Knauer, Jürgen ; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lindsay, Keith ; Liu, Junjie ; Liu, Zhu ; Marland, Gregg; Mayot, Nicolas ; McGrath, Matthew J. ; Metzl, Nicolas; Monacci, Natalie M. ; Munro, David R. ; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro ; Niwa, Yosuke; O'Brien, Kevin; Ono, Tsuneo ; Palmer, Paul I. ; Pan, Naiqing; Pierrot, Denis ; Pocock, Katie; Poulter, Benjamin ; Resplandy, Laure ; Robertson, Eddy; Rödenbeck, Christian ; Rodriguez, Carmen; Rosan, Thais M. ; Schwinger, Jörg ; Séférian, Roland ; Shutler, Jamie D. ; Skjelvan, Ingunn ; Steinhoff, Tobias; Sun, Qing ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Sweeney, Colm ; Takao, Shintaro; Tanhua, Toste ; Tans, Pieter P.; Tian, Xiangjun; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte ; Tsujino, Hiroyuki ; Tubiello, Francesco ; van der Werf, Guido R.; Walker, Anthony P. ; Wanninkhof, Rik; Whitehead, Chris; Willstrand Wranne, Anna; Wright, Rebecca ; Yuan, Wenping; Yue, Chao ; Yue, Xu ; Zaehle, Sönke ; Zeng, Jiye; Zheng, Bo

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E_FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr^—1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr^—1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E_LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr^—1, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr^—1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO₂). Also, for 2021, G_ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr^—1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr^—1), S_OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr^—1, and S_LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr^—1, with a B_IM of —0.6 GtC yr^—1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E_FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr^—1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: DESC0012972; AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1897754
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 2283824
• Journal Information: Earth System Science Data (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online) Vol. 14 Journal Issue: 11; ISSN 1866-3516
• Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
• Country of Publication: Germany
• Language: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES