Can MarketTREK be done when you`re under the gun? A case study in DSM penetration forecasting
- Southern Company Services, Inc., Atlanta, GA (United States); and others
Electric utilities are under severe pressures to launch Demand Side Management (DSM) programs. Georgia Power Company (GPC) asked Southern Company Services (SCS) to produce credible and well-documented market penetration forecasts of three commercial and industrial DSM programs within three months during the fall of 1992. SCS met these demands of Georgia Power using a new EPRI analysis tool, MarketTREK, designed for DSM market penetration forecasting. SCS implemented a unique approach we chose to call {open_quotes}pilot{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}exploratory{close_quotes} forecasting. This methodology employs qualitative and quantitative studies that can be implemented quickly and inexpensively to gather necessary information. Exploratory forecasting is conceived as an initial phase in the forecasting effort which should be followed by a second phase that incorporates findings and lessons learned from the first. In Phase I of th SCS experience, the EPRI MarketTREK tool dictated the scope of tasks. These included market size analysis using company billing data and facility group studies projected with floorspace economic drivers. Customer choice probabilities necessary for market timing analysis came from qualitative and conjoint analysis using data collected in fourteen small-sample focus groups. The timeliness of the SCS effort was significantly helped by the use of an interdisciplinary team of analysts with backgrounds in forecasting, customer research, load research, and DSM analysis. This case study describes our experience with MarketTREK and the benefits we gained by using the pilot forecasting approach.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Pacific Consulting Services, Albany, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 103276
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR--105012; CONF-930969--
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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