Stability of large offensive force reductions
The effect of decreasing offensive forces with fixed defenses is much like that of increasing defenses with fixed offenses as studied in ``Crisis Stability.`` Both increase stability. Even moderate boost-phase defenses strongly attrit first-strike missiles. Preferential attrition by downstream interceptors reduces missile strikes on value is larger with defenses than without, because of the increased survivability of non-alert aircraft. Without defenses the fraction of the defender`s Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that survive the first strike is essentially zero. With defenses the number that survive and penetrate boost-phase defenses is significant, but the number that penetrate the preferential defenses downstream rapidly falls to zero. Without defenses the second-strike aircraft are limited to alert aircraft. With defenses the number is essentially the full number of aircraft, which is much larger. Without defenses the total restrike is the sum of missiles and alert aircraft; with defenses it is all of the aircraft. The cost for striking first without defenses differs, but other strike costs are clustered. With defenses the stability index rapidly goes to unity; without them the stability index remains lower throughout. With defenses, the expected number of missile weapons on value drops rapidly to zero; without defenses it remains high to low levels of offensive forces. This pattern holds for various combinations of defenses and attacks. Without defenses, offensive reductions could lead to large reductions in stability; with defenses, large reductions would increase stability. 3 refs.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- OSTI ID:
- 10139238
- Report Number(s):
- LA--12294-MS; ON: DE92013554
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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