Fuzzy-algebra uncertainty assessment
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Naval Research Lab., Washington, DC (United States)
A significant number of analytical problems (for example, abnormal-environment safety analysis) depend on data that are partly or mostly subjective. Since fuzzy algebra depends on subjective operands, we have been investigating its applicability to these forms of assessment, particularly for portraying uncertainty in the results of PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) and in risk-analysis-aided decision-making. Since analysis results can be a major contributor to a safety-measure decision process, risk management depends on relating uncertainty to only known (not assumed) information. The uncertainties due to abnormal environments are even more challenging than those in normal-environment safety assessments; and therefore require an even more judicious approach. Fuzzy algebra matches these requirements well. One of the most useful aspects of this work is that we have shown the potential for significant differences (especially in perceived margin relative to a decision threshold) between fuzzy assessment and probabilistic assessment based on subtle factors inherent in the choice of probability distribution models. We have also shown the relation of fuzzy algebra assessment to ``bounds`` analysis, as well as a description of how analyses can migrate from bounds analysis to fuzzy-algebra analysis, and to probabilistic analysis as information about the process to be analyzed is obtained. Instructive examples are used to illustrate the points.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 10114807
- Report Number(s):
- SAND--95-0013C; CONF-941262--1; ON: DE95005426; BR: GB0103012
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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