Nonlinear statistics reveals stronger ties between ENSO and tropical hydrological cycle

Journal Article · Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2006 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027941· OSTI ID:931937

Khan, Shiraj ^[1]; Ganguly, Auroop R ^[1]; Bandyopadhyay, Sharba ^[2]; Saigal, Sunil ^[3]; Erickson, III, David J ^[1]; Protopopescu, Vladimir A ^[1]; Ostrouchov, George ^[1]

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1. ORNL
2. Johns Hopkins University
3. University of South Florida, Tampa

Cross-spectrum analysis based on linear correlations in the time domain suggested a coupling between large river flows and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. A nonlinear measure based on mutual information (MI) reveals extrabasinal connections between ENSO and river flows in the tropics and subtropics, that are 20-70% higher than those suggested so far by linear correlations. The enhanced dependence observed for the Nile, Amazon, Congo, Paran{acute a}, and Ganges rivers, which affect large, densely populated regions of the world, has significant impacts on inter-annual river flow predictabilities and, hence, on water resources and agricultural planning.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
• DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 931937
• Journal Information: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 24; ISSN 0094-8276
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GANGA RIVER
AMAZON RIVER
NILE RIVER
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
FLOW RATE
CORRELATIONS
NONLINEAR PROBLEMS
TROPICAL REGIONS