Technology choice in a least-cost expansion analysis framework: Effects of gas price, planning period, and system characteristics
The current outlook for new capacity additions by electric utilities is uncertain and tenuous. The fundamental question about the additional capacity requirements center on technology choice and the factors influencing the decision process. Instead of building capital-intensive power plants, utilities have begun relying on natural gas technologies, which permit rapid construction and deployment and low capital investment. Of concern to policymakers and utility planners are the following questions: (1) What is the impact of alternative gas price projections on technology choice (2) What influence does the planning horizon have on technology choice (3) How important are existing system characteristics on technology choice (4) What effect does capital cost, when combined with other technology characteristics in a capacity expansion framework, have on technology choice In this study Argonne National Laboratory examined the impact of these concerns on technology choices in 10 representative power pools with a dynamic optimization expansion model, the Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP). At least-cost expansion plan was determined for each power pool with three candidate technologies--natural gas combustion turbine technology (GT), natural gas combined-cycle technology (NGCC), and integrated gasification combined-cycle technology (IGCC)--three alternative fuel price tracks, and two planning periods (10-yr versus 30-yr optimization) between the years 1995 and 2025. The three fuel price tracks represented scenarios for low, medium, and high gas prices. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on IGCC capital cost and unserved energy costs. 21 refs., 79 figs., 21 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/FE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 6678889
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/EAIS/TM-20; ON: DE90014845
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
03 NATURAL GAS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
CAPACITY
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
POWER GENERATION
CAPITALIZED COST
COMBINED CYCLES
DECISION MAKING
FORECASTING
GAS TURBINES
GASIFICATION
LOAD MANAGEMENT
NATURAL GAS
PLANNING
PRICES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
COST
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
MACHINERY
MANAGEMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES
THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES
THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES
TURBINES
TURBOMACHINERY
200600* - Fossil-Fueled Power Plants- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects- (1990-)
030600 - Natural Gas- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects