Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature

Journal Article · Tue Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 1993 · Journal of Climate; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1133:SOTCIT>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:5899706

Evans, J L ^[1]

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1. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Mordialloc, Victoria (Australia)

Increased occurrence of more intense tropical storms intruding further poleward has been foreshadowed as one of the potential consequences of global warming. This scenario is based almost entirely on the general circulation model predictions of warmer sea surface temperature (SST) with increasing levels of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and some theories of tropical cyclone intensification that support the notion of more intense systems with warmer SST. Whether storms are able to achieve this theoretically determined more intense state depends on whether the temperature of the underlying water is the dominant factor in tropical cyclone intensification. An examination of the historical data record in a number of ocean basins is used to identify the relative importance of SST in the tropical cyclone intensification process. The results reveal that SST alone is an inadequate predictor of tropical cyclone intensity. Other factors known to affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are discussed. 16 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

• OSTI ID: 5899706
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate; (United States), Vol. 6:6; ISSN 0894-8755
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
SEAS
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT
TROPICAL REGIONS
HURRICANES
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DISASTERS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
STORMS
SURFACE WATERS
540110*
540120 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring &amp; Transport- (1990-)