Bayesian failure probability model sensitivity study. Final report

Technical Report · Fri May 30 00:00:00 EDT 1986

OSTI ID:5887466

The Office of the Manager, National Communications System (OMNCS) has developed a system-level approach for estimating the effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) on the connectivity of telecommunications networks. This approach incorporates a Bayesian statistical model which estimates the HEMP-induced failure probabilities of telecommunications switches and transmission facilities. The purpose of this analysis is to address the sensitivity of the Bayesian model. This is done by systematically varying two model input parameters--the number of observations, and the equipment failure rates. Throughout the study, a non-informative prior distribution is used. The sensitivity of the Bayesian model to the noninformative prior distribution is investigated from a theoretical mathematical perspective.

• Research Organization: Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc., Bethesda, MD (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5887466
• Report Number(s): AD-A-183877/0/XAB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

42 ENGINEERING
COMMUNICATIONS
SWITCHES
ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSES
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION
EQUIPMENT
FUNCTIONS
PULSES
RADIATIONS
420800* - Engineering- Electronic Circuits & Devices- (-1989)