Risk behavior-based model of the cubic growth of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States

Journal Article · Thu Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 1989 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America; (USA)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.86.12.4793· OSTI ID:5430648

Colgate, S A; Stanley, E A; Hyman, J M; Layne, S P; Qualls, C ^[1]

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1. Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM (USA)

The cumulative number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States has grown as the cube of time rather than exponentially. The authors explain this by interactions involving partner choice and sexual frequency in a risk-behavior model with biased mixing. This leads to a saturation wave of infection moving from high- to low-risk groups. If this description is correct, then the decreasing growth rate of AIDS cases is not due to behavior changes; rather it is due to the intrinsic epidemiology of the disease.

• OSTI ID: 5430648
• Journal Information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America; (USA), Vol. 86:12; ISSN 0027-8424
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
AIDS
EPIDEMIOLOGY
DISEASE INCIDENCE
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
BEHAVIOR
DEMOGRAPHY
HUMAN POPULATIONS
PATHOGENESIS
RISK ASSESSMENT
STATISTICS
TIME DEPENDENCE
USA
DISEASES
HEMIC DISEASES
IMMUNE SYSTEM DISEASES
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
MATHEMATICS
NORTH AMERICA
POPULATIONS
VIRAL DISEASES
550900* - Pathology