PROGNOSIS OF GLEs OF RELATIVISTIC SOLAR PROTONS
- Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, C.U., Coyoacán, 04510, México, D.F. (Mexico)
Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are relativistic solar particles measured at ground level by the worldwide network of cosmic ray detectors. These sporadic events are associated with solar flares and are assumed to be of a quasi-random nature. Studying them gives information about their source and propagation processes, the maximum capacity of the Sun as a particle accelerator engine, the magnetic structure of the medium traversed, etc. Space vehicles, as well as electric transformers and gas pipes at high latitudes may be damaged by this kind of radiation. As a result, their prediction has turned out to be very important, but because of their random occurrence, up to now few efforts toward this goal have been made. The results of these efforts have been limited to possible warnings in real time, just before a GLE occurrence, but no specific dates have been predicted well enough in advance to prevent possible hazards. In this study we show that, in spite of the quasi-stochastic nature of GLEs, it is possible to predict them with relative precision, even for future solar cycles. Additionally, a previous study establishing synchronization among some periodicities of several layers of solar atmosphere argues against the full randomness of the phenomenon of relativistic particle production. Therefore, by means of wavelet spectral analysis combined with fuzzy logic tools, we reproduce previous known GLE events and present results for future events. The next GLE is expected to occur in the first semester of 2016.
- OSTI ID:
- 22522509
- Journal Information:
- Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 803, Issue 1; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0004-637X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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