Volterra network modeling of the nonlinear finite-impulse reponse of the radiation belt flux
- Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing(ISARS), National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Metaxa and Vasillis Pavlou Street, Penteli, Athens 15236 (Greece)
- Department of Physics, Hodges Hall, PO Box 6315, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506-6315 (United States)
We show how a general class of spatio-temporal nonlinear impulse-response forecast networks (Volterra networks) can be constructed from a taxonomy of nonlinear autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous inputs (NAR-MAX) input-output equations, and used to model the evolution of energetic particle f uxes in the Van Allen radiation belts. We present initial results for the nonlinear response of the radiation belts to conditions a month earlier. The essential features of spatio-temporal observations are recovered with the model echoing the results of state space models and linear f nite impulse-response models whereby the strongest coupling peak occurs in the preceding 1-2 days. It appears that such networks hold promise for the development of accurate and fully data-driven space weather modelling, monitoring and forecast tools.
- OSTI ID:
- 21513135
- Journal Information:
- AIP Conference Proceedings, Vol. 1320, Issue 1; Conference: Festschrift on modern challenges in nonlinear plasma physics: Honoring the career of Dennis Papadopoulos, Halkidiki (Greece), 15-19 Jun 2010; Other Information: DOI: 10.1063/1.3544328; (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics; ISSN 0094-243X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Forecasting the relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Technical report
Prediction of MeV electron fluxes throughout the outer radiation belt using multivariate autoregressive models
Related Subjects
GENERAL PHYSICS
EQUATIONS
EVOLUTION
FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS
MAGNETIC STORMS
NEURAL NETWORKS
NICKEL TELLURIDES
NONLINEAR PROBLEMS
PLASMA WAVES
PULSES
RADIATION BELTS
SIMULATION
WEATHER
CHALCOGENIDES
MATHEMATICS
NICKEL COMPOUNDS
TELLURIDES
TELLURIUM COMPOUNDS
TRANSITION ELEMENT COMPOUNDS