Nuclear's role in 21. century Pacific rim energy use
- Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering, MC-234, 103 S. Goodwin Ave., University of Illinios at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)
Extrapolations contrast the future of nuclear energy use in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to that of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Japan can expect a gradual rise in the nuclear fraction of a nearly constant total energy use rate as the use of fossil fuels declines. ROK nuclear energy rises gradually with total energy use. ASEAN's total nuclear energy use rate can rapidly approach that of the ROK if Indonesia and Vietnam make their current nuclear energy targets by 2020, but experience elsewhere suggests that nuclear energy growth may be slower than planned. Extrapolations are based on econometric calibration to a utility optimization model of the impact of growth of population, gross domestic product, total energy use, and cumulative fossil carbon use. Fractions of total energy use from fluid fossil fuels, coal, water-driven electrical power production, nuclear energy, and wind and solar electric energy sources are fit to market fractions data. Where historical data is insufficient for extrapolation, plans for non-fossil energy are used as a guide. Extrapolations suggest much more U.S. nuclear energy and spent nuclear fuel generation than for the ROK and ASEAN until beyond the first half of the twenty-first century. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 20979562
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Advanced nuclear fuel cycles and systems (GLOBAL 2007), Boise - Idaho (United States), 9-13 Sep 2007; Other Information: Country of input: France; 6 refs; Related Information: In: Proceedings of GLOBAL 2007 conference on advanced nuclear fuel cycles and systems, 1873 pages.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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