The technology of two degrees

Conference · Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2006

OSTI ID:20712338

Edmonds, Jae; Smith, Steven J ^[1]

---

1. Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

This paper examines some of the energy technology implications of limiting the change in mean global surface temperature (GMST) to two degrees Celsius (2{sup o}C) relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Understanding the implications of this goal is clouded by uncertainty in key physical science parameters, particularly the climate sensitivity. If the climate sensitivity is 2.5{sup o}C then stabilization implies stabilisation of CO{sub 2} concentrations at less than 500 parts per million (ppm) with a peak in global CO{sub 2} emissions occurring in the next 15 years and with a decline in emissions to approximately 3 petagrams of carbon per year by 2095. Under such circumstances the value of technology improvements beyond those assumed in the reference case is found to be exceptionally high, denominated in trillions of 1990 USD. The role of non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases is important. Aerosols could produce significant feedbacks, though uncertainty is significant. If the climate sensitivity is 3.5{sup o}C or greater, it may be impossible to hold GMST change below 2{sup o}C. On the other hand if the climate sensitivity is 1.5{sup o}C, limiting GMST change to 2{sup o}C may be a trivial matter requiring little deviation from a reference emission path until after the middle of the 21st century. 21 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

• OSTI ID: 20712338
• Resource Relation: Conference: International symposium on stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations: avoiding dangerous climate change, Exeter (United Kingdom), 1-3 Feb 2005; Related Information: In: Avoiding dangerous climate change, by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe (eds.), 406; 16.7 MB pages.
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
MITIGATION
CLIMATIC CHANGE
TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS
POWER GENERATION
AEROSOLS
FOSSIL FUELS
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
CARBON DIOXIDE
EMISSION
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
COST
LAND USE
STABILIZATION
FORECASTING
HYDROGEN PRODUCTION
DATA COVARIANCES