Adaptively Addressing Uncertainty in Estuarine and Near Coastal Restoration Projects
Restoration projects have an uncertain outcome because of a lack of information about current site conditions, historical disturbance levels, effects of landscape alterations on site development, unpredictable trajectories or patterns of ecosystem structural development, and many other factors. A poor understanding of the factors that control the development and dynamics of a system, such as hydrology, salinity, wave energies, can also lead to an unintended outcome. Finally, lack of experience in restoring certain types of systems (e.g., rare or very fragile habitats) or systems in highly modified situations (e.g., highly urbanized estuaries) makes project outcomes uncertain. Because of these uncertainties, project costs can rise dramatically in an attempt to come closer to project goals. All of the potential sources of error can be addressed to a certain degree through adaptive management. The first step is admitting that these uncertainties can exist, and addressing as many of the uncertainties with planning and directed research prior to implementing the project. The second step is to evaluate uncertainties through hypothesis-driven experiments during project implementation. The third step is to use the monitoring program to evaluate and adjust the project as needed to improve the probability of the project to reach is goal. The fourth and final step is to use the information gained in the project to improve future projects. A framework that includes a clear goal statement, a conceptual model, and an evaluation framework can help in this adaptive restoration process. Projects and programs vary in their application of adaptive management in restoration, and it is very difficult to be highly prescriptive in applying adaptive management to projects that necessarily vary widely in scope, goal, ecosystem characteristics, and uncertainties. Very large ecosystem restoration programs in the Mississippi River delta (Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act; CWPPRA) have incorporated very specific and detailed elements in a more active adaptive management effort. In Puget Sound, the Puget Sound Action Team uses site-specific case studies, monitoring, and public involvement to direct actions to reduce microbial contamination of harvestable shellfish. Small-scale projects can also be improved through application of adaptive management. For example, directed research and site assessments resulted in successful restoration of seagrasses near a ferry terminal in Puget Sound. It is recommended that all restoration programs be conducted in an adaptive management framework, and where appropriate, a more active adaptive management approach be applied. The net effect should be less uncertainty, improved project success, advancement of the science of restoration, and cost savings.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 15016186
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-40819; 400403209; TRN: US200512%%53
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Coastal Research. JCR, Vol. 40 (sp. iss.); Other Information: PBD: 1 Mar 2005
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) Restoration in Puget Sound: Development of a Site Suitability Assessment Process
Concerns in Marine Renewable Energy Projects