The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016

Title: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016· OSTI ID:1340842

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1340842

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-118670; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Geoscientific Model Development (Online), Vol. 9, Issue 9; ISSN 1991-9603

Publisher:: European Geosciences Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000128813	text	January 2017
Studying the impact of biomass burning aerosol radiative and climate effects on the Amazon rainforest productivity with an Earth system model Malavelle, Florent F.; Haywood, Jim M.; Mercado, Lina M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019	journal	January 2019
The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system Gerber, Edwin P.; Manzini, Elisa Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3413-2016	journal	January 2016
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6 Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000119853	text	January 2016
LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project - Aims, setup and expected outcome Van Den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000120158	text	January 2016
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6 Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016	journal	January 2016
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4282286	text	January 2019
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000060650	text	January 2016
Volcanic Radiative Forcing From 1979 to 2015 Schmidt, Anja; Mills, Mj; Ghan, S. Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.34008	text	January 2018
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000305911	text	January 2018
Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979-2016 Druge, Thomas; Nabat, Pierre; Mallet, Marc Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1101	journal	December 2018
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4282287	text	January 2019
Framework for High-End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications Stammer, D.; Van De Wal, R. S. W.; Nicholls, R. J. FID GEO https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-5115	text	January 2019
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018	journal	January 2018
Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles Holmes, Caroline NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre https://doi.org/10.5285/e67242f2-e9aa-4402-85a3-be42d13354af	dataset	January 2022
Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China? Zhu, Huanhuan; Jiang, Zhihong; Li, Juan Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1	journal	July 2020
Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China Liu, Xiaoping; Wang, Shaojian; Wu, Peijun Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 53, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b00103	journal	May 2019
Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change Benveniste, Hélène; Oppenheimer, Michael; Fleurbaey, Marc Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, Issue 43 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007597117	journal	October 2020
The Arctic surface climate in CMIP6: status and developments since CMIP5 Davy, Richard; Outten, Stephen arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1912.11654	preprint	January 2019
Evaluating permafrost physics in the CMIP6 models and their sensitivity to climate change Burke, Eleanor; Zhang, Yu; Krinner, Gerhard The Cryosphere Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-309	journal	February 2020

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