Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Bowling, Laura C.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.003

Title: Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

Journal Article · Thu Jun 16 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global and Planetary Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.003· OSTI ID:1261547

Naz, Bibi S. ^[1];

^[1]; Ashfaq, Moetasim ^[2]; Rastogi, Deeksha ^[2]; Mei, Rui ^[2]; Bowling, Laura C. ^[3]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Computer Science and Mathematics Division
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy

Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially and temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 (~4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966 2005) and future (2011 2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. Furthermore, the projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: DOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1261547

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1323998

Journal Information:: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 143, Issue C; ISSN 0921-8181

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 79 works

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Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship: BUDYKO WATER BALANCE MODEL OVER CONUS Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L. Water Resources Research, Vol. 53, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr020843	journal	September 2017
Assessment on the Effect of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, China Bian, Huanqing; Lü, Haishen; Sadeghi, Ali Water, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010070	journal	January 2017
Sensitivity of seasonal flood simulations to regional climate model spatial resolution Castaneda-Gonzalez, Mariana; Poulin, Annie; Romero-Lopez, Rabindranarth Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04789-y	journal	May 2019
The Dependence of Hydroclimate Projections in Snow‐Dominated Regions of the Western United States on the Choice of Statistically Downscaled Climate Data Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W. Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr023458	journal	March 2019
Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration in Hydrological Model Calibration Jiang, Lulu; Wu, Huan; Tao, Jing Remote Sensing, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030428	journal	January 2020
Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States Gangrade, Sudershan; Kao, Shih-Chieh; McManamay, Ryan A. Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59806-6	journal	February 2020

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