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Title: Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV in 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all ofmore » these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less
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Resource Type:
Journal Article
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Journal Name: Journal of Climate, 26(19):7464–7488
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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Country of Publication:
United States
contribution; arctic; warming; interdecadal; summer; precipitation; Yangtze; river; valley; CMIP5; historical; simulations