Regional Projections of Climate on Decadal Time Scales: High resolution global predictions and regionally resolved source response studies

Technical Report · Fri Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2010

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1115450· OSTI ID:1115450

Tribbia, Joseph ^[1]; Zhang, Minghua ^[2]

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1. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
2. SUNY, Stony Brook, NY (United States)

There are many challenges associated with the development of a credible estimate of the evolution of the climate system with detail down to regional spatial scales. First, a means of informing the climate system model of the current state of the atmosphere and, more importantly, the ocean, land, and sea ice states must be developed for the initialization phase. Second, a means of producing a representative ensemble of depictions of the future of the climate system over a period of 10 to 30 years must be developed for the decadal prediction and its uncertainty quantification. Third, a method to add regional value to this ensemble must be developed. The proposed research will address these three issues, as well as test the merits of alternative approaches, by leveraging several new and promising efforts at NCAR, Sandia, and SUNY Stony Brook.

• Research Organization: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: SC0005356
• OSTI ID: 1115450
• Report Number(s): DE-SC0005356
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English