Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Steinberg, Daniel C.; Cherney, Daniel P.; Mignone, Bryan K.; Mowers, Matthew; Sergi, Brian

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.114187

Title: Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Journal Article · Tue Dec 09 00:00:00 UTC 2025 · iScience

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.114187 · OSTI ID:3015704

^[1]; Cherney, Daniel P. ^[2]; Mignone, Bryan K. ^[2]; Mowers, Matthew ^[3];

^[1]

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Golden, CO (United States)
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)
Matthew Mowers, LLC, New York, NY (United States)

Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share of services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.

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Research Organization:: National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: ExxonMobil; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 3015704

Report Number(s):: NLR/JA--6A20-90376

Journal Information:: iScience, Journal Name: iScience Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 29; ISSN 2589-0042

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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