Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

Asgari, Ali; Si, Wujun; Yuan, Liang; Krishnan, Krishna; Wei, Wei

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110146

Title: Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

Journal Article · 22 April 2024 · Reliability Engineering and System Safety

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110146 · OSTI ID:2506142

Asgari, Ali ^[1];

^[1]; Yuan, Liang ^[2]; Krishnan, Krishna ^[1];

^[1]

Wichita State University, Wichita, KS (United States)
CNPC Engineering Technology R&D Company Limited, Beijing (China)

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

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Research Organization:: Wichita State University, Wichita, KS (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: NASA; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0009525

OSTI ID:: 2506142

Journal Information:: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety Vol. 248; ISSN 0951-8320

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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