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Title: Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

Journal Article · · Scientific Reports
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1]
  1. The City University of New York – Graduate Center, NY (United States); The City University of New York – City College, NY (United States)
  2. New York City Department of Environmental Protection, NY (United States)
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The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (Tavg) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using Tavg. Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Research Organization:
The City University of New York - City College, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce; USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016605; SC0023174
OSTI ID:
2477456
Journal Information:
Scientific Reports, Journal Name: Scientific Reports Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLCCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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