A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

Perret, Daniel L.; Evans, Margaret K.; Sax, Dov F.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2304404120

Title: A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

Journal Article · 18 December 2023 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2304404120 · OSTI ID:2471347

^[1];

^[2]; Sax, Dov F. ^[1]

Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014664

OSTI ID:: 2471347

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 121; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

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