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Title: A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective

Abstract

Abstract. The last deglaciation (∼20–11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation (∼20–15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % ofmore » the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the experimental design (e.g. CO2 forcing or ice sheet reconstruction). The results provide insight into the ability of our models to simulate the first part of the deglaciation and how choices between uncertain boundary conditions and forcings, with a focus on freshwater fluxes, can impact model outputs. We can use these findings as helpful insight in the design of future simulations of this time period.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ; ; ORCiD logo
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
2335422
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Climate of the Past (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Climate of the Past (Online) Journal Volume: 20 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1814-9332
Publisher:
Copernicus GmbH
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Snoll, Brooke, Ivanovic, Ruza, Gregoire, Lauren, Sherriff-Tadano, Sam, Menviel, Laurie, Obase, Takashi, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bouttes, Nathaelle, He, Chengfei, He, Feng, Kapsch, Marie, Mikolajewicz, Uwe, Muglia, Juan, and Valdes, Paul. A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective. Germany: N. p., 2024. Web. doi:10.5194/cp-20-789-2024.
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Snoll, Brooke, Ivanovic, Ruza, Gregoire, Lauren, Sherriff-Tadano, Sam, Menviel, Laurie, Obase, Takashi, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bouttes, Nathaelle, He, Chengfei, He, Feng, Kapsch, Marie, Mikolajewicz, Uwe, Muglia, Juan, & Valdes, Paul. A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024
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Snoll, Brooke, Ivanovic, Ruza, Gregoire, Lauren, Sherriff-Tadano, Sam, Menviel, Laurie, Obase, Takashi, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bouttes, Nathaelle, He, Chengfei, He, Feng, Kapsch, Marie, Mikolajewicz, Uwe, Muglia, Juan, and Valdes, Paul. Fri . "A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024.
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@article{osti_2335422,
title = {A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective},
author = {Snoll, Brooke and Ivanovic, Ruza and Gregoire, Lauren and Sherriff-Tadano, Sam and Menviel, Laurie and Obase, Takashi and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Bouttes, Nathaelle and He, Chengfei and He, Feng and Kapsch, Marie and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Muglia, Juan and Valdes, Paul},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The last deglaciation (∼20–11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation (∼20–15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the experimental design (e.g. CO2 forcing or ice sheet reconstruction). The results provide insight into the ability of our models to simulate the first part of the deglaciation and how choices between uncertain boundary conditions and forcings, with a focus on freshwater fluxes, can impact model outputs. We can use these findings as helpful insight in the design of future simulations of this time period.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-20-789-2024},
journal = {Climate of the Past (Online)},
number = 4,
volume = 20,
place = {Germany},
year = {Fri Apr 05 00:00:00 EDT 2024},
month = {Fri Apr 05 00:00:00 EDT 2024}
}
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The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)
journal, June 2006

  • Collins, William D.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blackmon, Maurice L.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3761.1

A systematic study of the impact of freshwater pulses with respect to different geographical locations
journal, May 2009

Assessing the potential capability of reconstructing glacial Atlantic water masses and AMOC using multiple proxies in CESM
journal, July 2020

Ice sheet decline and rising atmospheric CO2 control AMOC sensitivity to deglacial meltwater discharge
journal, March 2022

The UVic earth system climate model: Model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and future climates
journal, December 2001

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol
journal, May 2023

Synchronous Deglacial Overturning and Water Mass Source Changes
journal, December 2009

High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present
journal, May 2008

  • Lüthi, Dieter; Le Floch, Martine; Bereiter, Bernhard
  • Nature, Vol. 453, Issue 7193
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature06949

The sensitivity of the climate response to the magnitude and location of freshwater forcing: last glacial maximum experiments
journal, January 2010

Early deglacial Atlantic overturning decline and its role in atmospheric CO 2 rise inferred from carbon isotopes (δ 13 C)
journal, January 2015

Two-phase structure of tropical hydroclimate during Heinrich Stadial 1 and its global implications
journal, October 2019

A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run
journal, December 2008

  • Smith, R. S.; Gregory, J. M.; Osprey, A.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 1, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-1-53-2008

Built for stability
journal, June 2011

Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years
journal, May 2008

  • Loulergue, Laetitia; Schilt, Adrian; Spahni, Renato
  • Nature, Vol. 453, Issue 7193
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature06950

Hydroclimate footprint of pan-Asian monsoon water isotope during the last deglaciation
journal, January 2021

Influence of glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through surface wind change
journal, July 2017

  • Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 7-8
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3780-0
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