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Title: Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Abstract

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modelingmore » framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [3];  [7];  [8];  [8]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur (Nepal); Water Resource Research and Development Centre (WRRDC), Pulchowk (Nepal)
  2. Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur (Nepal)
  3. Jackson State University, MS (United States)
  4. Howard University, Washington, DC (United States)
  5. Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS (United States)
  6. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  7. Pokhara University, Lalitpur (Nepal)
  8. Water Resource Research and Development Centre (WRRDC), Pulchowk (Nepal)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
2283830
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 155; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0177-798X
Publisher:
Springer Nature
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate change; Hydroclimatic projections; Energy; Hydropower potential; Integrated modeling framework; SWAT

Citation Formats

Baniya, Rupesh, Regmi, Ram Krishna, Talchabhadel, Rocky, Sharma, Sanjib, Panthi, Jeeban, Ghimire, Ganesh R., Bista, Sunil, Thapa, Bhesh Raj, Pradhan, Ananta M. S., and Tamrakar, Jebin. Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas. United States: N. p., 2024. Web. doi:10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4.
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Baniya, Rupesh, Regmi, Ram Krishna, Talchabhadel, Rocky, Sharma, Sanjib, Panthi, Jeeban, Ghimire, Ganesh R., Bista, Sunil, Thapa, Bhesh Raj, Pradhan, Ananta M. S., & Tamrakar, Jebin. Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4
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Baniya, Rupesh, Regmi, Ram Krishna, Talchabhadel, Rocky, Sharma, Sanjib, Panthi, Jeeban, Ghimire, Ganesh R., Bista, Sunil, Thapa, Bhesh Raj, Pradhan, Ananta M. S., and Tamrakar, Jebin. Mon . "Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4.
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@article{osti_2283830,
title = {Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas},
author = {Baniya, Rupesh and Regmi, Ram Krishna and Talchabhadel, Rocky and Sharma, Sanjib and Panthi, Jeeban and Ghimire, Ganesh R. and Bista, Sunil and Thapa, Bhesh Raj and Pradhan, Ananta M. S. and Tamrakar, Jebin},
abstractNote = {Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = 3,
volume = 155,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2024},
month = {Mon Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2024}
}
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