Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6
Abstract
Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack ofmore »
- Authors:
-
[2]
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Berkeley CA USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 2204447
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 2204448
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Volume: 128 Journal Issue: 21; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Erickson, Nathan E., and Patricola, Christina M. Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6. United States: N. p., 2023.
Web. doi:10.1029/2022JD037563.
Erickson, Nathan E., & Patricola, Christina M. Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037563
Erickson, Nathan E., and Patricola, Christina M. Thu .
"Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037563.
@article{osti_2204447,
title = {Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6},
author = {Erickson, Nathan E. and Patricola, Christina M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.},
doi = {10.1029/2022JD037563},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 21,
volume = 128,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2023},
month = {Thu Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2023}
}
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