Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness
Abstract
In the opening months of the pandemic (March - June), the need for situational awareness was urgent. Traditional forecasting models such as the Susceptible Infectious Recovered (SIR) model were hampered by limited testing data and key data on mobility, contact tracing, local policy variations and so forth would not be available with reliability for months. Reliably available were new case counts from John Hopkins University and the NY Times. Using these data, the challenge was to develop a robust monitoring capability in support of U.S. decision making. The Department of Energy’s National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory responded by developing the COVID County Situational Awareness Tool (CCSAT). The result is significant in three ways. First, we developed a retrospective 7-day moving window map of county level disease magnitude and acceleration that smoothed daily variations and categorized counties with intuitive labels such as “high but decelerating”. Secondly, we developed a Bayesian model that reliably forecasted county level magnitude and acceleration maps for the upcoming week based on population and new case count data. Together these formed a robust operational update delivered weekly to the U.S. government. In this paper, we provide CCSAT details and apply it to a single week in June 2020.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1879913
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1884037; OSTI ID: 1885957
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-173905
Journal ID: ISSN 0143-6228; S0143622822001308; 102759; PII: S0143622822001308
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Applied Geography
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Applied Geography Journal Volume: 146 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0143-6228
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; COVID-19; Spatio-temporal; Monitoring; Forecasting; Bayesian
Citation Formats
Stewart, Robert, Erwin, Samantha, Piburn, Jesse, Nagle, Nicholas, Kaufman, Jason, Peluso, Alina, Christian, J. Blair, Grant, Joshua, Sorokine, Alexandre, and Bhaduri, Budhendra. Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness. United Kingdom: N. p., 2022.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102759.
Stewart, Robert, Erwin, Samantha, Piburn, Jesse, Nagle, Nicholas, Kaufman, Jason, Peluso, Alina, Christian, J. Blair, Grant, Joshua, Sorokine, Alexandre, & Bhaduri, Budhendra. Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102759
Stewart, Robert, Erwin, Samantha, Piburn, Jesse, Nagle, Nicholas, Kaufman, Jason, Peluso, Alina, Christian, J. Blair, Grant, Joshua, Sorokine, Alexandre, and Bhaduri, Budhendra. Thu .
"Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102759.
@article{osti_1879913,
title = {Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness},
author = {Stewart, Robert and Erwin, Samantha and Piburn, Jesse and Nagle, Nicholas and Kaufman, Jason and Peluso, Alina and Christian, J. Blair and Grant, Joshua and Sorokine, Alexandre and Bhaduri, Budhendra},
abstractNote = {In the opening months of the pandemic (March - June), the need for situational awareness was urgent. Traditional forecasting models such as the Susceptible Infectious Recovered (SIR) model were hampered by limited testing data and key data on mobility, contact tracing, local policy variations and so forth would not be available with reliability for months. Reliably available were new case counts from John Hopkins University and the NY Times. Using these data, the challenge was to develop a robust monitoring capability in support of U.S. decision making. The Department of Energy’s National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory responded by developing the COVID County Situational Awareness Tool (CCSAT). The result is significant in three ways. First, we developed a retrospective 7-day moving window map of county level disease magnitude and acceleration that smoothed daily variations and categorized counties with intuitive labels such as “high but decelerating”. Secondly, we developed a Bayesian model that reliably forecasted county level magnitude and acceleration maps for the upcoming week based on population and new case count data. Together these formed a robust operational update delivered weekly to the U.S. government. In this paper, we provide CCSAT details and apply it to a single week in June 2020.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102759},
journal = {Applied Geography},
number = C,
volume = 146,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022},
month = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022}
}
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102759
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