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Title: A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Journal Article · · Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
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  1. Uppsala Univ. (Sweden)
  2. Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels (Belgium)
  3. Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA) (Spain); University of Girona (Spain)
  4. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. Dundalk Institute of Technology (Ireland)
  6. University of Konstanz (Germany)
  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); East China Normal Univ. (ECNU), Shanghai (China)
  9. Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) (Russian Federation); Tomsk State University (Russian Federation)
  10. Eawag (Switzerland)
  11. Université Laval (Canada)
  12. Université Laval (Canada); Center for Northern Studies (Canada)
  13. Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russian Federation); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Moscow (Russian Federation)
  14. Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands)
  15. Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research (Israel). Kinneret Limnological Laboratory
  16. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
  17. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin (Germany)
  18. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Chemical and Biological Engineering
  19. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States)
  20. Dundalk Institute of Technology (Ireland); Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
  21. Univ. of Geneva (Switzerland)
  22. Univ. of Trento (Italy); Ecole Polytechnique Federale Lausanne (EPFL) (Switzerland)
  23. Eawig (Switzerland)
  24. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany); Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin (Germany)
  25. Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russian Federation)
  26. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  27. Univ. of Western Australia, Perth, WA (Australia)
  28. Dorset Environmental Science Centre (Canada)
  29. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin(Germany); Freie Univ., Berlin (Germany)
  30. Waikato Regional Council, Hamilton (New Zealand); Univ. of Waikato, Hamilton (New Zealand)
  31. Université Savoie Mont-Blanc (France)
  32. Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)
  33. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
  34. Queen's Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada)
  35. Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
  36. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  37. Marine Institute (Ireland)
  38. King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Seattle, WA (United States)
  39. Czech Academy of Sciences (CAS) (Czech Republic)
  40. CSIRO Land and Water (Australia)
  41. University of Stirling (United Kingdom)
  42. Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia)
  43. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (United Kingdom)
  44. Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) (Sweden)
  45. Univ. of Waikato, Hamilton (New Zealand)
  46. University of Évora (Portugal)
  47. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany)
  48. US Geological Survey, Madison, WI (United States)
  49. South Australian Water Corporation, Adelaide (Australia)
  50. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton (New Zealand)
  51. 7 Lakes Alliance, Belgrade Lakes, ME (United States)
  52. Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) (Russian Federation)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5° × 0.5° global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1872678
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--172624
Journal Information:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online), Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online) Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 15; ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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