Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Ribeiro, Joana; Bingre, Pedro; Strubbe, Diederik; Santana, Joana; Capinha, César; Araújo, Miguel B.; Reino, Luís

doi:10.1093/biosci/biac015

Title: Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Authors:

; Bingre, Pedro; Strubbe, Diederik; Santana, Joana; Capinha, César; Araújo, Miguel B.; Reino, Luís

Publication Date:: Wed Apr 06 00:00:00 EDT 2022

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain

OSTI Identifier:: 1861453

Grant/Contract Number:: PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017; CEECIND/02037/2017; CEECIND/00445/2017

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: BioScience

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: BioScience Journal Volume: 72 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0006-3568

Publisher:: Oxford University Press

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Formats


                    Ribeiro, Joana, Bingre, Pedro, Strubbe, Diederik, Santana, Joana, Capinha, César, Araújo, Miguel B., and Reino, Luís. Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade.  United States: N. p., 2022. 
Web.  doi:10.1093/biosci/biac015.

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                    Ribeiro, Joana, Bingre, Pedro, Strubbe, Diederik, Santana, Joana, Capinha, César, Araújo, Miguel B., & Reino, Luís. Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac015

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                    Ribeiro, Joana, Bingre, Pedro, Strubbe, Diederik, Santana, Joana, Capinha, César, Araújo, Miguel B., and Reino, Luís. Wed .  
"Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac015.

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@article{osti_1861453,

  title        = {Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade},

  author       = {Ribeiro, Joana and Bingre, Pedro and Strubbe, Diederik and Santana, Joana and Capinha, César and Araújo, Miguel B. and Reino, Luís},

  abstractNote = {Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.},

  doi          = {10.1093/biosci/biac015},

  journal      = {BioScience},

  number       = 6,

  volume       = 72,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Apr 06 00:00:00 EDT 2022},

  month        = {Wed Apr 06 00:00:00 EDT 2022}

}

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Title: Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract

Citation Formats

Regional Bans on Wild-Bird Trade Modify Invasion Risks at a Global Scale: Trade bans and invasion risk journal, March 2017

Networks of global bird invasion altered by regional trade ban journal, November 2017

Flying into extinction: Understanding the role of Singapore’s international parrot trade in growing domestic demand journal, June 2019

Will legal international rhino horn trade save wild rhino populations? journal, September 2020

Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect journal, April 2018

When pets become pests: the role of the exotic pet trade in producing invasive vertebrate animals journal, June 2019

A Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions journal, July 2019

Cluster Validity with Fuzzy Sets journal, January 1973

How well do we understand the impacts of alien species on ecosystem services? A pan-European, cross-taxa assessment journal, April 2010

Trade Bans: A Perfect Storm for Poaching? journal, September 2012

Dealing in deadly pathogens: Taking stock of the legal trade in live wildlife and potential risks to human health journal, January 2019

Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers journal, August 2016

Out of control means off the menu: The case for ceasing consumption of luxury products from highly vulnerable species when international trade cannot be adequately controlled; shark fin as a case study journal, December 2018

The Allure of the Illegal: Choice Modeling of Rhino Horn Demand in Vietnam: Demand for rhino horn in Vietnam journal, November 2017

Impact of the ivory trade ban on poaching incentives: a numerical example journal, February 2001

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands journal, August 2011

When Do International Treaties Matter for Domestic Environmental Legislation? journal, November 2019

Forty-four years of global trade in CITES-listed snakes: Trends and implications for conservation and public health journal, August 2020

The European trade ban on wild birds reduced invasion risks journal, February 2019

Crossing Frontiers in Tackling Pathways of Biological Invasions journal, July 2015

A brief history of bird flu journal, May 2019

Rarity Value and Species Extinction: The Anthropogenic Allee Effect journal, November 2006

The Role of Propagule Pressure in Biological Invasions journal, December 2009

International socioeconomic inequality drives trade patterns in the global wildlife market journal, May 2021

Coronavirus: why a permanent ban on wildlife trade might not work in China journal, February 2020

Combined impacts of deforestation and wildlife trade on tropical biodiversity are severely underestimated journal, October 2018

Declining populations of greater sage-grouse: hunter motivations when numbers are low: Hunting rare species journal, May 2015

Left hung out to dry: How inadequate international protection can fuel trade in endemic species – The case of the earless monitor journal, October 2018

Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence journal, July 2005

Poacher-population dynamics when legal trade of naturally deceased organisms funds anti-poaching enforcement journal, May 2021

How to manage biological invasions under globalization journal, May 2005

Challenges of analyzing the global trade in CITES-listed wildlife: CITES data journal, April 2018

The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 journal, November 2013

Wildlife trade and consumer preference for species rarity: an examination of caged-bird markets in Sumatra journal, May 2019

Boosting CITES journal, December 2010

Alternative futures for global biological invasions journal, May 2021

The geopolitical ecology of conservation: The emergence of illegal wildlife trade as national security interest and the re-shaping of US foreign conservation assistance journal, August 2020

Wild-bird trade and exotic invasions: a new link of conservation concern? journal, May 2008

Regional Bans on Wild-Bird Trade Modify Invasion Risks at a Global Scale: Trade bans and invasion risk
journal, March 2017

Networks of global bird invasion altered by regional trade ban
journal, November 2017

Flying into extinction: Understanding the role of Singapore’s international parrot trade in growing domestic demand
journal, June 2019

Will legal international rhino horn trade save wild rhino populations?
journal, September 2020

Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect
journal, April 2018

When pets become pests: the role of the exotic pet trade in producing invasive vertebrate animals
journal, June 2019

A Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions
journal, July 2019

Cluster Validity with Fuzzy Sets
journal, January 1973

How well do we understand the impacts of alien species on ecosystem services? A pan-European, cross-taxa assessment
journal, April 2010

Trade Bans: A Perfect Storm for Poaching?
journal, September 2012

Dealing in deadly pathogens: Taking stock of the legal trade in live wildlife and potential risks to human health
journal, January 2019

Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers
journal, August 2016

Out of control means off the menu: The case for ceasing consumption of luxury products from highly vulnerable species when international trade cannot be adequately controlled; shark fin as a case study
journal, December 2018

The Allure of the Illegal: Choice Modeling of Rhino Horn Demand in Vietnam: Demand for rhino horn in Vietnam
journal, November 2017

Impact of the ivory trade ban on poaching incentives: a numerical example
journal, February 2001

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
journal, August 2011

When Do International Treaties Matter for Domestic Environmental Legislation?
journal, November 2019

Forty-four years of global trade in CITES-listed snakes: Trends and implications for conservation and public health
journal, August 2020

The European trade ban on wild birds reduced invasion risks
journal, February 2019

Crossing Frontiers in Tackling Pathways of Biological Invasions
journal, July 2015

A brief history of bird flu
journal, May 2019

Rarity Value and Species Extinction: The Anthropogenic Allee Effect
journal, November 2006

The Role of Propagule Pressure in Biological Invasions
journal, December 2009

International socioeconomic inequality drives trade patterns in the global wildlife market
journal, May 2021

Coronavirus: why a permanent ban on wildlife trade might not work in China
journal, February 2020

Combined impacts of deforestation and wildlife trade on tropical biodiversity are severely underestimated
journal, October 2018

Declining populations of greater sage-grouse: hunter motivations when numbers are low: Hunting rare species
journal, May 2015

Left hung out to dry: How inadequate international protection can fuel trade in endemic species – The case of the earless monitor
journal, October 2018

Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence
journal, July 2005

Poacher-population dynamics when legal trade of naturally deceased organisms funds anti-poaching enforcement
journal, May 2021

How to manage biological invasions under globalization
journal, May 2005

Challenges of analyzing the global trade in CITES-listed wildlife: CITES data
journal, April 2018

The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
journal, November 2013

Wildlife trade and consumer preference for species rarity: an examination of caged-bird markets in Sumatra
journal, May 2019

Boosting CITES
journal, December 2010

Alternative futures for global biological invasions
journal, May 2021

The geopolitical ecology of conservation: The emergence of illegal wildlife trade as national security interest and the re-shaping of US foreign conservation assistance
journal, August 2020

Wild-bird trade and exotic invasions: a new link of conservation concern?
journal, May 2008