Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

Bodda, Saran Srikanth; Gupta, Abhinav; Dinh, Nam

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107140

Title: Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

Abstract

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. Themore »« less

Authors:

Bodda, Saran Srikanth ^[1]; Gupta, Abhinav ^[2]; Dinh, Nam ^[3]

North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of CCEE
North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Center for Nuclear Energy Facilities and Structures
North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

Publication Date:: Sat Jun 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020

Research Org.:: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE)

OSTI Identifier:: 1850493

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1644157

Grant/Contract Number:: NE0008530

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 204; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0951-8320

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 42 ENGINEERING; Engineering; Operations Research & Management Science; Validation; Risk-informed; Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA); External hazards; Bayesian inference; Uncertainty quantification

Citation Formats


                    Bodda, Saran Srikanth, Gupta, Abhinav, and Dinh, Nam. Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario.  United States: N. p., 2020. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107140.

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                    Bodda, Saran Srikanth, Gupta, Abhinav, & Dinh, Nam. Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107140

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                    Bodda, Saran Srikanth, Gupta, Abhinav, and Dinh, Nam. Sat .  
"Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107140.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1850493.

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@article{osti_1850493,

  title        = {Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario},

  author       = {Bodda, Saran Srikanth and Gupta, Abhinav and Dinh, Nam},

  abstractNote = {In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.ress.2020.107140},

  journal      = {Reliability Engineering and System Safety},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 204,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sat Jun 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020},

  month        = {Sat Jun 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020}

}

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Title: Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

Abstract

Citation Formats

Seismic fragility of threaded Tee-joint connections in piping systems journal, August 2015

Validation Metrics for Deterministic and Probabilistic Data journal, September 2018

On the Jensen–Shannon Symmetrization of Distances Relying on Abstract Means journal, May 2019

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Advanced nuclear power plant regulation using risk-informed and performance-based methods journal, February 2009

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Risk informed validation framework for external flooding scenario journal, January 2020

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Seismic fragility of threaded Tee-joint connections in piping systems
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Validation Metrics for Deterministic and Probabilistic Data
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On the Jensen–Shannon Symmetrization of Distances Relying on Abstract Means
journal, May 2019

Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks
journal, March 2001

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journal, June 2007

Bayesian inference for Common cause failure rate based on causal inference with missing data
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Adequacy evaluation of smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods for simulating the external-flooding scenario
journal, August 2020

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journal, January 2018

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journal, April 2017

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journal, February 2009

Framework for Multihazard Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Wood-Frame Residential Construction
journal, February 2009

A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics
journal, December 2019

Quantifying reactor safety margins part 1: An overview of the code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology
journal, May 1990

Some Recent Advances on Importance Measures in Reliability
journal, June 2012

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journal, October 2007

Treating Uncertainties in a Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic risk Assessment by Means of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence
journal, February 2014

Reliability Modeling of Redundant Systems Considering CCF Based on DBN
journal, May 2018

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journal, August 2011

On the use of uncertainty importance measures in reliability and risk analysis
journal, February 2010

Applying Generalized Continuous Time Bayesian Networks to a reliability case study
journal, January 2015

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journal, January 2020

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