In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness

Ke, Ruian; Zitzmann, Carolin; Ho, David D.; Ribeiro, Ruy M.; Perelson, Alan S.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2111477118

Title: In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness

Journal Article · 02 December 2021 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111477118 · OSTI ID:1833729

^[1]; Zitzmann, Carolin ^[2];

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Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545,, New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM 87544,
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545,
Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY 10032

Significance Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is important for understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here, we developed within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and by fitting them to clinical data, we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves as an appropriate surrogate for a person’s infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); National Institutes of Health (NIH); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1833729

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-21-26047; e2111477118

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 49 Vol. 118; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
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Title: In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness

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