Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Wehner, Michael; gleckler, Peter; Lee, Jiwoo

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782

Title: Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

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Abstract

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.

Authors:

^[1]; gleckler, Peter ^[2]; Lee, Jiwoo ^[2]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Oct 20 00:00:00 EDT 2021

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1826726

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: EGUsphere

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 2020; Conference: EGU General Assembly 2020, (Held Virtually), 4-8 May 2020; Journal ID: ISSN 9999-0057

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Wehner, Michael, gleckler, Peter, and Lee, Jiwoo. Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.  United States: N. p., 2021. 
Web.  doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782.

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                    Wehner, Michael, gleckler, Peter, & Lee, Jiwoo. Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782

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                    Wehner, Michael, gleckler, Peter, and Lee, Jiwoo. Wed .  
"Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1826726.

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@article{osti_1826726,

  title        = {Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models},

  author       = {Wehner, Michael and gleckler, Peter and Lee, Jiwoo},

  abstractNote = {Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.},

  doi          = {10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782},

  journal      = {EGUsphere},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 2020,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Oct 20 00:00:00 EDT 2021},

  month        = {Wed Oct 20 00:00:00 EDT 2021}

}

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