Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Schlunegger, Sarah; Rodgers, Keith B.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Dunne, John P.; Takano, Yohei; Christian, James R.; Long, Matthew C.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Slater, Richard; Lehner, Flavio

doi:10.1029/2019GB006453

Title: Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Journal Article · Wed Jul 22 20:00:00 EDT 2020 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006453 · OSTI ID:1815812

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Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; OSTI
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Inst. for Basic Science, Busan (Korea, Republic of). Center for Climate Physics; Pusan National Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Max Plank Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.
Max Plank Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany; Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Physics Inst. Climate and Environmental Physics; Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1815812

Journal Information:: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Name: Global Biogeochemical Cycles Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 34; ISSN 0886-6236

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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