Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Wang, Minghuai

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x

Title: Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Journal Article · Mon Jan 04 00:00:00 UTC 2021 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x · OSTI ID:1755848

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Nanjing Univ. (China); Nanjing Univ. (China). Joint International Research Lab. of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences & Inst. for Climate and Global Change Research
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Ministry of Science and Technology of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1755848

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL--808123; 1014002

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: na Vol. na; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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