A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Hale, Jacob; Long, Suzanna

doi:10.3390/en14010141

Title: A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Journal Article · Mon Dec 28 19:00:00 EST 2020 · Energies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en14010141 · OSTI ID:1752983

Hale, Jacob;

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

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Research Organization:: University of Missouri, Columbia, MO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0006341

OSTI ID:: 1752983

Journal Information:: Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN ENERGA; ISSN 1996-1073

Publisher:: MDPI AGCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Switzerland

Language:: English

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