Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population
Abstract
Abstract Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process‐based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[4]
- National Security Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Math Thesis Program, Oak Ridge High School Oak Ridge TN USA
- Climate Change Science Institute and Computational Sciences and Engineering Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1734796
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1777773; OSTI ID: 1786644
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 47 Journal Issue: 23; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Brelsford, Christa, Coon, Ethan T., Moran, V, Edward, and Allen‐Dumas, Melissa. Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2020GL089742.
Brelsford, Christa, Coon, Ethan T., Moran, V, Edward, & Allen‐Dumas, Melissa. Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089742
Brelsford, Christa, Coon, Ethan T., Moran, V, Edward, and Allen‐Dumas, Melissa. Sat .
"Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089742.
@article{osti_1734796,
title = {Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population},
author = {Brelsford, Christa and Coon, Ethan T. and Moran, V, Edward and Allen‐Dumas, Melissa},
abstractNote = {Abstract Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process‐based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089742},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 23,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Nov 28 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Sat Nov 28 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089742
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089742
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
The integrated Earth System Model (iESM): formulation and functionality
journal, January 2015
- Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions
journal, June 2018
- Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6
Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses
journal, May 1981
- Davidson, Russell; MacKinnon, James G.
- Econometrica, Vol. 49, Issue 3
Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming
journal, May 2015
- McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7
Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems
journal, June 2017
- Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 7
Settlement scaling and increasing returns in an ancient society
journal, February 2015
- Ortman, Scott G.; Cabaniss, Andrew H. F.; Sturm, Jennie O.
- Science Advances, Vol. 1, Issue 1
The Origins of Scaling in Cities
journal, June 2013
- Bettencourt, L. M. A.
- Science, Vol. 340, Issue 6139
Population Estimation Using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Imagery
journal, January 2007
- Wu, Changshan; Murray, Alan T.
- Geographical Analysis, Vol. 39, Issue 1
From global scaling to the dynamics of individual cities
journal, February 2018
- Depersin, Jules; Barthelemy, Marc
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 10
Invention in the city: Increasing returns to patenting as a scaling function of metropolitan size
journal, February 2007
- Bettencourt, Luis M. A.; Lobo, José; Strumsky, Deborah
- Research Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 1
Urban Land Area and Population Growth: A New Scaling Relationship for Metropolitan Expansion
journal, September 2007
- Marshall, Julian D.
- Urban Studies, Vol. 44, Issue 10
LandScan USA: a high-resolution geospatial and temporal modeling approach for population distribution and dynamics
journal, September 2007
- Bhaduri, Budhendra; Bright, Edward; Coleman, Phillip
- GeoJournal, Vol. 69, Issue 1-2
Sustainable prosperity and societal transitions: Long-term modeling for anticipatory management
journal, June 2011
- Ruth, Matthias; Kalnay, Eugenia; Zeng, Ning
- Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol. 1, Issue 1
Heterogeneity and scale of sustainable development in cities
journal, May 2017
- Brelsford, Christa; Lobo, José; Hand, Joe
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 34
Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities
journal, April 2007
- Bettencourt, L. M. A.; Lobo, J.; Helbing, D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 17
The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
journal, January 2017
- O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Ebi, Kristie L.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Residential population estimation using a remote sensing derived impervious surface approach
journal, August 2006
- Lu, Dengsheng; Weng, Qihao; Li, Guiying
- International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 27, Issue 16
Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a CO2-enriched atmosphere
journal, May 2001
- Oren, Ram; Ellsworth, David S.; Johnsen, Kurt H.
- Nature, Vol. 411, Issue 6836
Scaling and universality in urban economic diversification
journal, January 2016
- Youn, Hyejin; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Lobo, José
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 13, Issue 114
Cities as Organisms: Allometric Scaling of Urban Road Networks
journal, July 2008
- Samaniego, Horacio; Moses, Melanie E.
- Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 1, Issue 1
Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems
journal, September 2007
- Liu, J.; Dietz, T.; Carpenter, S. R.
- Science, Vol. 317, Issue 5844
Explaining the prevalence, scaling and variance of urban phenomena
journal, December 2016
- Gomez-Lievano, Andres; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Hausmann, Ricardo
- Nature Human Behaviour, Vol. 1, Issue 1
Evaluating Mesoscale NWP Models Using Kinetic Energy Spectra
journal, December 2004
- Skamarock, William C.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 132, Issue 12
A new generation of the United States National Land Cover Database: Requirements, research priorities, design, and implementation strategies
journal, December 2018
- Yang, Limin; Jin, Suming; Danielson, Patrick
- ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 146
Urban scaling in Europe
journal, March 2016
- Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Lobo, José
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 13, Issue 116
Dynamics of earthquake faults
journal, April 1994
- Carlson, J. M.; Langer, J. S.; Shaw, B. E.
- Reviews of Modern Physics, Vol. 66, Issue 2
The interpretation of urban scaling analysis in time
journal, February 2020
- Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Yang, Vicky Chuqiao; Lobo, José
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 17, Issue 163
Per capita incidence of sexually transmitted infections increases systematically with urban population size: a cross-sectional study
journal, April 2015
- Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Goldstein, Edward; Gómez-Liévano, Andrés
- Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol. 91, Issue 8